Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
